Blackjack Probability of Winning: Odds for Each Hand

Understanding how blackjack odds and also how the blackjack house edge works are key ingredients to a successful blackjack game.

In this comprehensive guide to blackjack odds and house edge, our team explores the concepts behind online blackjack odds and the house advantage. Once you learn how different variations of the game effect the odds, you can begin to maximize your chances of success.

Furthermore, we also discuss other key concepts like how the odds effect the house, how the dealer odds affect the outcome, return to player percentages, which online casinos offer the best blackjack games, and more.

What Are the Overall Odds of Winning in Blackjack?

The overall odds of winning a blackhack hand are 42.22%, 8,48% to get a push, which is a refund on your bet, and a 49.10% chance of losing.

Let’s start by talking about how often players win, tie, and lose when playing blackjack for real money.

Assuming you’re playing a standard blackjack game in a casino and you’re following basic strategy:

• You have a 42.22% chance of winning on each hand.
• An 8.48% chance of a push.
• A 49.10% chance of losing.

What about multiple wins or losses in a row? You can come up with a basic probability for the odds of winning or losing x number of times with some simple multiplication. Let’s say you want to know the odds of winning three times in a row – raise your overall odds of winning (42.22%) to the third power (for 3 wins in a row), and you get 7.5%. Winning three times in a row should happen about once every 12 or 13 sessions.

I want to show an extreme example of consecutive losses to prove a point. Your odds of losing 12 hands in a row in blackjack are surprisingly high. Just take your odds of losing on each hand (49.1%) and raise it to the 12th power. That gives you a 0.019% chance of losing a dozen hands in a row. That means one in every 5,000 blackjack sessions could produce a string of 12 consecutive losses.

Variance is part of the game, and you’re more likely to see long streaks of wins and losses the more you play.

What Is the Probability of Winning Based on the Dealer’s Up Card?

Here’s a chart showing the advantage held by a player following basic strategy against the dealer, based on the up card showing in the dealer’s hand:

Dealer Card	Bust Percentage	Player Advantage
Dealer 2	35.3%	Player advantage: 9.8%
Dealer 3	37.56%	Player advantage: 13.4%
Dealer 4	40.28%	Player advantage: 18%
Dealer 5	42.89%	Player advantage: 23.2%
Dealer 6	42.08%	Player advantage: 23.9%
Dealer 7	25.99%	Player advantage: 14.3%
Dealer 8	23.86%	Player advantage: 5.4%
Dealer 9	23.34%	Casino advantage: 4.3%
Dealer 10	21.43%	Casino advantage: 16.9%
Dealer J	21.43%	Casino advantage: 16.9%
Dealer Q	21.43%	Casino advantage: 16.9%
Dealer K	21.43%	Casino advantage: 16.9%
Dealer A	11.65%	Casino advantage: 16%

The dealer’s odds table below shows what the probability of the dealer busting is, based on the dealers cards. But remember, the odds can change depending on the variation of blackjack you play.

What Are the Odds of Busting on Each Blackjack Hand?

The following players odds table, shows the probability of the player busting, based on the players existing cards. Furthermore, understanding the probability can help you maximize your payouts.

How likely is each blackjack hand to bust when taking a hit?

• Player has 20 – 92%
• Player has 19 – 85%
• Player has 18 – 77%
• Player has 17 – 69%
• Player has 16 – 62%
• Player has 15 – 58%
• Player has 14 – 56%
• Player has 13 – 39%
• Player has 12 – 31%

It surprises some people to see that a total of 14 will bust more often than not when you hit it. It seems like a relatively safe total to hit from since there are six cards you can draw that won’t cause you to bust. Such is the mathematics underpinning blackjack – hit a hand point total between 14 and 16, and you’ll bust out close to 60% of the time.

This chart also shows why 15 and 16 are such maddening totals. The dealer will beat your 16 more than 2/3 of the time (66.81%), but if you hit that 16, you’ll bust out at almost the same rate (62%).

Your odds of beating the dealer only conflict with your odds of busting out against a dealer’s upcard of 4, 5, or 6. Remember that the dealer is at the greatest risk of going bust with a total of 4-6.

How Do the Dealer’s Odds Affect the Game Outcome?

What kind of hand do you need to form to beat the dealer? It helps that blackjack dealer’s in-game behavior is controlled by the rules of the game so that in most games the dealer stands on a soft total of 17.

Below is a chart showing the dealer’s odds of drawing each final hand:

• Natural blackjack – 4.82%
• 21 (multi-card hand) – 7.36%
• 20 – 17.58%
• 19 – 13.48%
• 18 – 13.81%
• 17 – 14.58%
• Bust – 28.37%

The other 66.81% of dealers’ hands will require more finesse if you want to win more often than you lose. With a dealer total of 20 or 21, your most likely positive result is a push. If you do the math, you’ll see that those totals account for about 25% of all dealer’s hands.

How Should You Adjust Your Strategy Based on the Dealer’s Odds?

In blackjack, the dealer’s up card significantly influences the player’s ideal strategy. The better you understand when the dealer is likely to bust, and when they are in a strong position, can help you make smarter decisions. Knowing the likelihood of the dealer busting will allow you to know what action to take, such as when to hit, stand, double down, or surrender. Below, we’ll explore how you can adjust your strategy based on the dealer’s odds of busting or drawing a high hand.

What Are the Odds of Winning with Different Blackjack Hands?

Every round of blackjack starts with two cards dealt to each player. Your odds, and even your ideal strategy, depend heavily on this two-card draw.

Let’s start by looking at a chart of the frequency of each type of two-card combo to start the game:

• Natural blackjack – 4.8%
• Hard 17-20 – 30%
• 2-16 – 38.7%
• Any total less than 11 – 26.5%

What do we learn here? Those decision hands (totals of 2-16) make up more than 1/3 of all hands you play, while those hard standing totals of 17-20 make up less than 1/3. You won’t need to worry much about that 4.8% of hands that result in a natural – you’ll win most of those no matter what.

How Does Blackjack House Edge Influence Winning Odds?

The house edge is a built-in advantage that gives casinos the upper hand in blackjack over time. Understanding how this edge works can help you make smarter decisions and improve your odds of winning. Various factors, such as the number of decks, payout ratios, and the dealer’s rules, directly impact the house edge. Below, we’ll explore how some of the most common game rules influence your chances of winning and the overall house advantage. View our guide to beating the house at blackjack.

• Blackjack payback: You should be looking for the standard payback of 3:2 whenever you are dealt a two-card 21. If you play a game where the payback is 6:5 or lower, consequently, the house edge rises.
• Dealer “soft 17” rules: Ideally, you’ll play an online blackjack game where a dealer has to stand on a “soft 17.” This is a 17 with an ace where the ace is valued at 11 instead of one. In games where the dealer can still value the ace as one in these situations and hit, the house edge rises.
• Decks used: The more decks that are used in online blackjack, hence the worse it is for the player. That’s because it will make blackjack a little bit harder to get.
• Split and double rules: Ideally, you would be able to make these plays in any situation as often as you want. Although, some online blackjack games restrict how many times and which cards can be used. Also, the more restrictions in a game, the worse it is for the player.
• Surrender: Novice players might not realize it, but being able to surrender your blackjack hand after a disadvantageous deal to lessen losses is an excellent tip. Comparatively, if you can’t surrender, it works against you as a player and raises the online blackjack house advantage.

What Is Return to Player (RTP) in Blackjack?

The return to player, also known as RTP % is the percentage of the return on wagers from a game. So, to calculate the RTP in blackjack, subtract the house edge of the blackjack variation from 100.

How Do Blackjack Variations Affect Your Chances of Winning?

House edge and RTP vary in games of blackjack vary depending on the game variation. The following table compares the house edge percentage and RTP percentage across different blackjack variants.

Variant	House Edge (%)	RTP%
Single Deck Blackjack	0.13	99.87
Atlantic City Blackjack	0.36	99.64
High Stakes Blackjack	0.42	99.58
Vegas Strip Blackjack	0.35	99.65
Vegas Downtown Blackjack	0.39	99.60

What Are the Rules and Odds in Single Deck Blackjack?

Single Deck Blackjack, also known as Classic Blackjack, has one deck and has the highest RTP% of any blackjack variation. The house edge is .13% and the RTP% is 99.87. Furthermore, single deck blackjack requires the dealer to hit anytime they have 16 or less.

Single Deck Blackjack rules:

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What Are the Rules and Odds in Atlantic City Blackjack?

Atlantic City Blackjack originated in, you guessed it – Atlantic City. This variation of blackjack uses up to eight decks with rules regulated by the New Jersey Gaming Authority. The house edge is 0.36% and the RTP% is 99.64%.

But, no matter where you play it, the rules are always the same:

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What Are the Rules and Odds in High Stakes Blackjack?

People with heft bankrolls generally favor High Stakes Blackjack generally. Since hands typically start with a minimum bet of $50, spending time playing this variation can add up to big gains – or big losses, depending on how things play out. The house edge is 0.42% and the RTP% is 99.58%.

For example, these rules keep the house edge under 35%:

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What Are the Rules and Odds in Vegas Strip Blackjack?

Vegas Strip Blackjack follows whole card rules and uses four decks of cards. However, there are a couple distinct differences in this blackjack variation. First, when the dealer has a 10 and an Ace face up, they peak to see if the next card is a blackjack. Second, players can’t surrender. The house edge is 0.35% and the RTP% is 99.65%.

The Vegas Strip Blackjack rules are as follows:

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What Are the Rules and Odds in Vegas Downtown Blackjack?

Vegas Downtown Blackjack variation originated in the casinos of the downtown Vegas area. Games use two decks, and have a higher house edge than most other variants. The house edge is 0.39% and the RTP% is 99.60%.

Here’s a brief overview of Vegas Downtown Blackjack:

What Is the Best Strategy to Reduce the Blackjack House Edge?

Reducing the house edge in blackjack requires a combination of playing the right games, using optimal strategies, and understanding the game rules that favor the player.

The house edge can vary significantly based on factors like how many decks are used, whether you can surrender, and the payout ratio for a natural blackjack. Below are key strategies to reduce the house edge:

• Choose Games with Favorable Rules: Always look for games with a 3:2 payout for a natural blackjack. If the payout is reduced to 6:5, the house edge will increase by as much as 1.45%.
• Stand on Hard Totals: When the dealer is showing a weak up card (2-6), standing on weaker hands (like 12-16) will reduce your chances of busting while increasing the likelihood of the dealer going over 21.
• Double Down When Appropriate: Doubling down in situations where the dealer is vulnerable (e.g., when showing a 5 or 6) can greatly increase your potential profit. Make sure to always double down on hands like 11 when the dealer shows a weak card.
• Use the Surrender Option: Surrendering can be a powerful tool to reduce losses. If the dealer shows a strong up card (like a 10 or Ace), surrendering a hard 16 can save you money in the long run. Not all games offer surrender, so choose tables that include this option.

By selecting games with player-favorable rules and following these strategies, you can reduce the house edge to as little as 0.5% in the best scenarios. Read our guide to beating the house and reducing the house edge for further information.

Where Can I Play Blackjack with the Best Odds?

Now that you’ve read about the probabilities of blackjack and your chances of winning for each scenario, you can put it to the test by playing online. Check out our guide to the top-rated blackjack casinos, with details on their features, game variations, and bonuses. The guide contains advice for both free and real money blackjack sites, depending on your level of readniness.

We’ve listed some of our recommendations below.

Wild Casino – If you enjoy having plenty of options, Wild Casino offers 20 RNG blackjack games and 26 live blackjack tables. Explore blackjack variety at Wild Casino and refine your strategy across different game types.

Super Slots – Ready for some competition? Super Slots hosts blackjack tournaments with prize pools up to $20,000. Join blackjack tournaments at Super Slots and put your skills to the test.

Bovada – For an authentic experience, Bovada features 34 live dealer blackjack tables, with betting limits catering to both casual players and high rollers. Play live dealer blackjack at Bovada and immerse yourself in real-time action.

DuckyLuck – If you want to practice first, DuckyLuck offers free play on six different blackjack games. Try free blackjack games at DuckyLuck to perfect your strategy before betting real money.

Thunderpick Casino – For crypto users, Thunderpick Casino provides a great selection of blackjack games, including 15 RNG tables and live dealer options. Play blackjack with crypto at Thunderpick and enjoy a seamless crypto-gambling experience.