The No Bust Blackjack Strategy has been a topic of curiosity among blackjack players for years. The core idea is simple: by standing on any hand with a point total between 12 and 16, players hope to avoid busting and force the dealer to bust instead. On paper, this seems like a conservative approach to chip away at the house edge. After all, avoiding busting means staying in the game longer, right?
However, while this strategy might seem appealing to some, it doesn’t hold up in practice. Players using the no-bust strategy are actually putting themselves at a disadvantage, as the house still maintains a significant edge. In this article, we will explore how the no-bust strategy works, examine the results of testing it, and explain why it may not be the best approach for blackjack success.
What Is the No Bust Blackjack Strategy?
The No Bust Blackjack Strategy is a conservative approach to blackjack where players avoid taking any additional cards once they reach a ‘stiff’ hand, typically one with a total between 12 and 16 points.
The aim is to stand and on your total and hope the dealer goes bust by exceeding 21. This strategy is to focus on minimizing risk of busting and letting the dealer take that risk instead.
Whilst it may seem a cautious and potentially profitable approach, it doesn’t improve player’s odds. It works by relying heavily on luck rather than probability-based decision making like with basic strategy.
How Does the No Bust Blackjack Strategy Work?
In the No Bust Blackjack Strategy, the player stands on all hands totaling between 12 and 16, regardless of what the dealer shows. The theory is that by never hitting on these “busting” hands, the player avoids the risk of going over 21.
Instead, the decision-making is given to the dealer, hoping the dealer will have a high enough card to go bust. The dealer has around a 33% chance of busting, and this strategy aims to take advantage of that. However it overlooks the dealer’s ability to hit on soft 17 and the better advantage the player would have if they just followed basic strategy.
What Are the Odds of Busting in Blackjack?
In blackjack, hitting on a hand above a 12 can result in busting. Hitting on a hand total of 12 gives you approximately a 31% chance of busting, and hitting on a hand of 16 gives you a 62% chance of busting.
The dealer has about a 33% chance of busting. However, this still means the dealer will avoid busting in nearly two-thirds of hands, leaving no-bust players at a statistical disadvantage.
In blackjack the dealer holds an advantage because the player must act first. Even if the dealer is likely to bust, the player can bust before the dealer reveals their hand, giving the house its edge.
The following players odds table, shows the probability of the player busting, based on the players existing cards. The no bust strategy aims to stand on anything above a 12, as it believes that the 31% chance of busting is significant enough to not risk taking a hit.
How likely is each blackjack hand to bust when taking a hit?
| Player Hand Total | Chance of Busting |
|---|---|
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or less | 0% |
Can the No Bust Blackjack Strategy Beat the House Edge?
The No Bust Blackjack Strategy cannot beat the house edge, it actually gives the casino an even greater advantage. In a standard blackjack game, players are dealt stiff hands (12 – 16) about 38% of the time. With a 66.85% of chance to lose these hands, the house has a built in edge of over 25% against a no-bust player.
The no-bust strategy fails to take into account the dealer’s strong position and the mathematics behind a proper blackjack strategy.
Results from Testing the No Bust Blackjack Strategy
The No Bust Blackjack Strategy leads to mixed results that actually favor the online casino. We tested this strategy with 100 hands, and it became clear that relying on the dealer to bust is not a winning approach.
While the player does experience short bursts of success – which leads them to think that the No Bust Blackjack Strategy works – the variance eventually pulls the result back in the favor of the casino.
For example, after 100 hands, a test of the no-bust strategy ended with a small loss of $25. This reflects the reality of blackjack—small wins can occur, but over time, the house edge prevails.
What Are the Pros and Cons of the No Bust Blackjack Strategy?
There are a couple of pros to the No Bust Blackjack Strategy, including a simple and easy to follow plan with no busting, and several cons with the major one being the increased house edge
Pros
- Simplicity: The strategy is easy to follow—players stand on any hand of 12-16, which simplifies decision-making.
- Avoiding Busting: Players minimize the risk of busting by never hitting stiff hands.
Cons
- House Edge Increases: This strategy amplifies the house edge, leading to more frequent losses in the long run.
- Limited Winning Opportunities: Since players avoid taking hits, they often miss chances to improve their hands, leaving them with weaker totals against the dealer.
- Over-reliance on Dealer Busting: The strategy depends heavily on the dealer busting, which statistically happens less frequently than players would like.
Let’s see how the No Bust Strategy compared to basic strategy across numerous factors.
| Aspect | No Bust Strategy | Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| House Edge | Higher (over 25%) | Lower (0.5-1%) |
| Risk of Busting | Low (avoids hitting on stiff hands) | Balanced (depends on optimal play) |
| Player Decision-Making | Simplified (stand on 12-16) | Complex (hit, stand, split, double down) |
| Reliance on Dealer | High (dealer must bust for player to win) | Lower (strategy maximizes player hand strength) |
| Best for | Beginners seeking simplicity | Players looking to minimize losses |
What Are Alternative Strategies to the No Bust Blackjack Strategy?
Instead of relying on the No Bust Blackjack Strategy, players can improve their chances by following basic blackjack strategy. This approach considers both the player’s hand and the dealer’s upcard, offering guidance on when to hit, stand, split, or double down. Basic strategy cards and cheatsheets are available, like this one on BestUSCasinos, and can be used to reduce the house edge to as low as 0.5%.
Another option is the card counting strategy, where players track high and low cards to determine the best time to place larger bets.
Should You Use No Bust Blackjack in Real Games?
No, the No Bust Blackjack Strategy is not recommended for real-money games. It may seem like a safe way to avoid busting, but it actually increases the house edge and limits your chances of winning. The strategy’s reliance on the dealer busting is risky, as it happens less often than players expect. Stick to basic strategy which is proven to minimize losses and improve success in the long term.
Is There a Safe Way to Play Blackjack Without Busting?
There is no foolproof way to avoid busting in blackjack, but players can reduce the risk by using basic strategy. This allows players to make decisions that minimize risk, reduce the chances of them busting, while giving them a good chance to win. Blackjack will always involve chance, however, and no strategy guarantees a win.
What Are the Most Common Blackjack Mistakes to Avoid?
The most common mistakes in blackjack include not following basic strategy, standing on weak hands, and chasing losses with larger bets. More common mistakes include taking poor value side bets, which increase the house edge. Some players stand on hands like 12 or 13 against a dealer’s low card when really they should be hitting and getting close to 21.
Can You Improve at Blackjack by Practicing Online?
Yes, practicing blackjack online is one of the best ways to improve. Plenty of blackjack sites have free-play mode which can be useful to test out different strategies, like the No Bust Strategy. By practicing basic strategy for free, you can develop the skills needed to minimize losses and improve their chances when playing for real.
